A tropical low is currently located over the Arafura Sea, about 280 km north-northeast of Darwin. Global models indicate a southwestward movement during the next days. Sea surface temperature above 28°C and low vertical wind shear provide favorable conditions for an intensification. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) predicts this intensification to occur on Sunday night and Monday. During the next two days, the system will bring strong rain, wind gusts of up to 110 km/h, and high tides in coastal regions of the Top End. The Bureau of Meteorology has issued detailed warnings. See here.
Forecast of mean sea level pressure (contours) and 6-hourly precipitation from 04 March, 00 UTC to 07 March, 12 UTC.